Monday 11/28/22: Tuesday Snow Forecast Update

Monday 11/28/22: Tuesday Snow Forecast Update

Well, just yesterday I was sharing how the computer models had shifted snow (unfortunately/fortunately, depending on your take on snow) to the south, and now that trend has reversed course. Yesterday, my final line was that “it’ll take a significant shift north” to get back into the plowable snow zone. Well, snow-lovers, it appears we’re trending more toward that shift.

This was the model forecast for around noon on Tuesday as of yesterday, which showed a greatly diminished chance of snow and probably something near 0.5″ of snow:

Yesterday’s American GFS model forecast precipitation, depicting accumulating/plowable snow missing Minneapolis. That’s now an outlier.

Now, that narrow line of snow has shifted back north to encompass portions of the Twin Cities and surrounding metro area. Or at least for some computer models it has. That image above? That’s still what the long-range American model is showing, with most snow missing Minneapolis. The short-term high-resolution NAM tells a different story — one in which the Twin Cities would receive closer to 3-4″ of total snow throughout Tuesday.

Here’s the future radar around 10 a.m. on Tuesday morning:

Take that moderate snow and stretch it out over a few hours, and you have yourselves a snowstorm with 3-4″ or even more in a few spots. That forecast lines up with the European ECMWF model as well, making the American GFS an outlier with no snow/limited snow for the Twin Cities.

Looking at that European model closer, with a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio you’d be looking at some 3-4″ totals around the Twin Cities, with higher tallies farther south:

The high-resolution NAM agrees, for the most part, with that forecast. Note, though, that as close as places like Elk River and St. Michaels you’d be seeing totals closer to 1″ or even less. There’s still that sharp dropoff. Or, could that line of heavier snow continue to trend north? I wish I had a more definitive take on this, other than that the if the European and high-resolution NAM are in agreement that forecast tends to come true. Stay tuned!

Published by Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Aaron graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Madison in Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences, and worked as a meteorologist in television for 8 years (NBC affiliates in Wyoming and South Dakota, and the CBS/Fox affiliate in Cedar Rapids, IA, prior to working at the cable weather station WeatherNation). While in Iowa, Aaron worked as a storm chaser and on-air meteorologist, where he went on dozens of storm chases and saw a number of tornadoes.