Saturday 5/9/20: Chilly in Minneapolis, but we’ll get through this

Writing about “bad” weather is never one of my favorite things, especially when you’re talking temperatures well below average in Minnesota. Yesterday we had a high of 49 degrees at MSP, which puts us at 18 degrees below average. Both our highs and our lows have been incredibly cold, which seemingly tends to happen in MN this time of year (usually one last time, right?).

Well today we talk about a chance of rain, a chance of snow, and when it’ll warm up.

Let’s start with rain. There are some tiny light showers on the radar as of 7:20 a.m. this morning, and they’re headed into the Twin Cities metro area:

After this we’ll wait for the larger storm system to arrive, closer to 4-5 p.m. this afternoon/evening. We could see some light rain again before that — but it all starts as rain (green) below:

Note on the backside of that little comma-shaped storm system you see some snow (blue) chances. It looks like some flakes are a sure thing, no matter how hard we try to will them not to fall.

Here’s the future radar by about 11 p.m. tonight, showing the snow over Minneapolis/St. Paul and the metro area:

Overnight we could see some light accumulation on metal and grassy surfaces, but I think it’ll be hard for it to stick anywhere warmer (so roads, sidewalks, etc. should be fine).

That should be the last precip (at least expected precip) between now and our impending warm-up, which happens… Tuesday to Wednesday.

I didn’t have the heart to make another cold 7-day forecast on Mother’s Day weekend, so I’ll summarize: aside from today and tomorrow, it’ll be close to freezing overnight and well below-average by day, with some sunshine. Then, Tuesday night we stay closer to 40 degrees, with a high near 60, and after that we don’t look back. Here’s what’s happening behind the scenes.

Here’s the jetstream over North America for this afternoon. You can see an arrow indicating cold air coming in over the Midwest, because we’re in the middle of a deep cold air trough:

Thankfully things shift quickly, and a warm air ridge slides in by Tuesday night to Wednesday:

That’s the game-changer. Not that we can’t, or won’t see another cooldown — it’s just getting harder and harder for a cooldown like what we’re currently seeing to happen. It seems like every year right around Mother’s Day we’re talking about a system like this, as everyone is itching to get those plants in the ground. I’d say you should wait until Wednesday to start your planting. Stay tuned!

Published by Meteorologist Aaron Shaffer

Aaron graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Madison in Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences, and worked as a meteorologist in television for 8 years (NBC affiliates in Wyoming and South Dakota, and the CBS/Fox affiliate in Cedar Rapids, IA, prior to working at the cable weather station WeatherNation). While in Iowa, Aaron worked as a storm chaser and on-air meteorologist, where he went on dozens of storm chases and saw a number of tornadoes.